Good day! Yes, Beryl jumped to hurricane status and yes the models (called spaghetti for a reason) look bad for those in the ‘path’…Yet let us focus on the Eastern Seaboard immediately.
“The @NHC_Atlantic is closely watching an area of low pressure located a few hundred mi (miles ) southeast of the NC coast. Conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form over the next few of days as the system drifts northwestward & meanders near the NC coast over the weekend.”
It’s get even better (or worse) depending on who you listen to. Here is some of the noise going around…
“With the scenario, “There is the potential for a few days of heavy rainfall that could result in flooding in parts of the Carolinas, especially in coastal areas, if the feature wanders close to shore,” according to AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Brian Knopick.
Should the system meander offshore long enough over warm waters, there is a chance it could strengthen into a hurricane.
(Now..hold on, this is just a possibility…slight at best at the time of this writing)
“A strengthening tropical storm is likely to cause building seas and rough surf from northeastern Florida to southeastern Virginia this weekend into next week. Locally severe thunderstorms, including the risk of waterspouts spinning ashore, would also be a concern. Coastal interests in the region should be on the lookout for changing sea conditions, including the risk of strengthening rip currents, this weekend into next week. Small craft venturing outside of the protection of the Inter-coastal Waterway could be at risk for a sudden tropical storm and building seas. Cruise companies should closely monitor this developing situation and consider a path around the zone of potential tropical trouble.
(I’m okay with taking precautions and this is certainly within the ball park as far as I’m concerned)
Later next week, there is a chance the feature is picked up by another round of southwesterly winds that could pull the feature along the East Coast or out to sea.
Depending on how close to the coast the feature is, areas farther north along the mid-Atlantic, New England and Canada coasts could have an encounter with heavy rain and gusty winds from a tropical storm spanning next Thursday to Saturday, July 12-14 2018.”
So, hopefully you spread the word to those in the aforementioned areas for heavy downpours, rough seas and (well, great news if you love surfing – and this stays out to sea) heavy surf conditions.
My next update will cover why I’m putting up the ‘shear and dry air’ maps on top of the website for now regarding Hurricane Beryl.
Eric